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Ronald Bailey Jul 10, 2021 10:10 PM ET How bad is the false-positive problem in scientific research? As I earlier reported, a 2015 editorial in The Lancet observed that much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. A 2015 British Academy of Medical Sciences report suggested that the false discovery rate in some areas of biomedicine could be as high as 69 percent. In an email exchange with me, Ioannidis estimated that the nonreplication rates in biomedical observational and preclinical studies could be as high as 90 percent. The possibility that fraud may well be responsible for a significant proportion of the false positives reported in the scientific literature is suggested by a couple of new Dutch studies. Both studies are preprints that report the results of surveys of thousands of scientists in the Netherlands aiming to probe the prevalence of questionable research practices and scientific misconduct.

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