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psychological dimension of warfare is so important. you have numbers on paper and you have an order of battle but as command and control begin to dissint grate, as people panic they have a sense their protectors are leaving, it s like a bridge cracking, you have a few strains, cracks and then boom, the whole bridge goes. that s what we ve watched. we watched a war that lasted 20 years seem to end in a day. that s not to say the forces haven t been built up all that time but there is this sudden psychological discontinuity. so i would say both are true. the cia has done better than most getting this right but there s something they couldn t see, maybe it s not in our nature to detect these deep psychological traumas that lead to sudden convulsive change

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