the homes, and, probably, change to the landscape, a really significant storm to the outer banks, not a ton of people living through but the landscape will change. shepard: it is important to remind people not to think about why the eye comes to shore but tropical storm force winds extend out a distance and rain extends out hundreds of miles. rick: two points: did not focus on the center of the storm because it is a pinpoint. that is one spot. you can see all this area getting the wind and rain, a big area. where it make as difference if you are on right side of the storm you get storm subject. so, areas of long island, maybe even western long island, the populated areas, around john f. kennedy, we will talk about those areas getting a lot of flooding from a storm surge. so, long island, storm surge-wise, that would be worse if you were on the right side. but a lot of people getting wind, a lot of people getting rain, enough to cause significant flooding and a lot of trees downed and
down without power for a week. shepard: the eye is so close to new york city you can no project from 40 to 50 miles where it will jog. if it goes west of the difficult, the city s planning models make it look like lower manhattan is underwater. rick: the planning models talk about a storm coming from the southeast and you see a storm from the southeast hits jersey and pummels the surge up into the hudson river and that is not the case, this storm is coming from here, you will not have that kind of a storm surge and we are talking about category one hurricane not a three, so not the models you are seeing for new york city. shepard: the surge, the eastern part long island, and middle island, and to john f. kennedy on the western side of long island, they could get storm surge but that could top dunes so if you live along the shore you need to, do what?
the strongest of the wind from the center across land but if it does that, then we are talking about something that does not have the time over water to strengthen so it weakens the storm significantly as it moves across land and breaks it down because there are hills here and there is no water source and the further north it goes the faster it moves because of the rotation of the earth. the storm accelerates. good news if it does not stay over water and hit long island in that sense, but, again, we re talking maybe 20 miles one direction or 20 miles in another and that forecast you cannot get that forecast. shepard: it looks like cape hatteras could get pudged punched. rick: you are along the side of a freight train or hit directly. anyone who take as direct hit it will be the outer banks and around cape hatteras and across long island, the other spot that
inland, around morehead city, pummeling with strong waves and a lot of wind and beach erosion and topping the barrier islands. look at this, the center of the storm on this model hugs the land and stays overland, over delaware, over new jersey. you do not want to see it go right over the area but still not be strengthening when it is over land so that is a bright side. it make as weaker storm around the new york city area. shepard: and rick, back to the carolinas. history from watching storms like this, gloria was like this, but not as strong when it hit, this looks like a big trees down and infrastructure problem storm. rick: it does, eastern carolina, a lot of rain. but this, because it will track to the west of the outer banks, we will talk about trees down and roads washed off, and talking about damage to a lot of
hits directly. but we are talking about minimal category storm and the surge that well see on long island is 8 to 12 feet but not a katrina 30 storm surge. shepard: but when the dune is 8 tall and the surge is 10 that is not good. rick: and we had time to watch this, a week s notice, you know what you have to do. you have to get out. shepard: i was at the surf shack last night at the beach and a nice young lady said, it is not going to really hit, they always say it will hit. rick: this will hit. it will not miss. this is not going to deflect and miss it. that is not going to happen. it will hit.