I've been pondering whether we'll get any further warningsabout when AI(s) will
exceed human levels at general-purpose tasks, and that doing so would entail
enough risk that AI researchers ought to take some precautions. I feel pretty
uncertain about this.
I haven't even been able to make useful progress at clarifying what I mean by
that threshold of general intelligence.
As a weak substitute, I've brainstormed a bunch of scenarios describing
not-obviously-wrong ways in which people might notice, or fail to notice, that
AI is transforming the world.
I've given probabilities for each scenario, which I've pulled out of my ass and
don't plan to defend.
These probabilities add up to more than 100% - they're not mutually exclusive.
I'll estimate an additional 15% chance that we get a fire alarm some other way,
and a 25% chance that we get neither an alarm nor an interesting story about
what prevented the alarm.
What do I mean by "a fire
Officials at the United Kingdom's National Health Service (NHS) recently declared an electrician's Christian beliefs to be "incompatible with human dignity." The comment came [.]