Jerónimo Carballo, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão
Five years after the Brexit referendum, research has evaluated its impact so far on UK trade. The findings show that the ongoing Brexit uncertainty has already reduced UK trade in goods and services before any actual policy changes took place. This disintegration is present in UK trade, with countries potentially affected by trade policy changes including the EU and other UK preferential trade partners. Firms in these countries faced increased trade policy uncertainty, leading to depressed export investments.
We discuss the importance of policy stability and commitments, and their effects on business decisions and investment generally (Bloom et al. 2018, 2019). We focus on recent evidence drawn for the impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK trade in goods and services and conclude with some policy remarks.