The Avalanche Begins for Interest Rate By Shmuel Shayowitz | February 18, 2021
The thing about avalanches is that they always start slow, grows in size as it rapidly accelerates until it’s totally out of control and wrecks everything in its path. That’s all I could think about these past few days, as I saw the bond market spike 20 basis points in yield over this holiday-shortened trading week. Indeed it started slowly as the 10-yr yield crossed over the critical 1.00 mark beginning January 28, and from there, it has minimally risen almost every trading day in February.
Last Friday, the avalanche accelerated when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 1.24. It was a big and unexpected jump. The real-time reaction to the sell-off was that the “real traders” had already taken off for the holiday weekend and that amateurs were causing the market distortion. As I spoke with a client on Sunday, I referenced the sell-off and mentioned that many a