the botchy refinery, if it take as long time to come back the people of iraq will suffer without the fuel they need have, the electricity. electricity required to run the oil installations and other things that will provide that oil. we re looking at exxon/mobil just did a massive evacuation of all of its people out of his operations in iraq. so best case scenario, the best case i can come up with is the isis rebels get halted where they are. there s no further damage, no further gains. things goin stabilize. even under that scenario, neil, we don t see additional oil production coming out of iraq. something that world was counting on. and point out, you always remind me that even though we don t get direct iraqi oishlgs it oil, it s important to europe and one of the reason crude is rocketing, they feel particularly vulnerable. don t they? they do. the world oil price is $114 a barrel today. i think even under the base case