Cyclical recovery here. I guess thats something for the day. Based on the Technical Levels like the 200 day moving average, there are bullish signals out of the small and midcap space. Caroline what is the number one risk on your mind . Please ask that again . Caroline what is your number one risk . U. S. China . Deteriorating earnings . Coronavirus and a lack of a vexing . Vaccine . There are always risks that keep you up at night. Longerterm, ive never seen the monetary stimulation i have seen in the last six months were money growth is rowing at 80 annualized. I think ive been wrong that inflation has not surfaced but i do believe it will so longerterm i worry about inflation because it erodes the real return of the tone of stocks. I worry that post qqq earnings season as they move into the number that we have democratic sweep and what it does to the Corporate Tax rate, that is a risk as well. Caroline great to get your expertise. Breaking news. Microsoft out with earnings. The clou
We were talking about it with some of the smaller and midcap names. We saw some of the cruise line stocks, the casinos. The restaurants were on fire. Cracker barrel up 9 , 10 . Dont you like that . Caroline i have not been to a cracker barrel. Romaine exit through the gift store. Taylor this really all comes back to the data that we got this morning. June Industrial Production and july early numbers out of manufacturing all betterthanexpected. Are hearing from dances of the of Richard Bernstein advisors. Thank you for being with us. You take a look at the positive economic numbers. The big outperformance in the russell 2000 today. You said you were a little overweight on u. S. Versus the rest of the world. How do you think about that Going Forward . Smallcap producers getting a big win . Dan i think modest overweight on the u. S. Still makes sense, but i think moving that angry mental dollar outside the u. S. Makes more sense. Clear thatis very the data is Getting Better in the u. S. ,
Economic front. P equities, that is a lie, calculated it. He said after 10 different quarters of gains in the s p was always followed up another 5 to 10 gain in the next quarter. Having off the strong secondquarter boats well is well. R bodes positive quarters could still lie ahead. Romaine referring to pd, one of the many people behind the scenes who keeps this program looking smart and feeling smart. Eaton vance codirector still with us. Thank you for being patient. Talk to me about volatility. We have seen the vix come down from the highs. It is not back down to precovid19 levels, but definitely there is a lot of calm in markets i think would be an encouraging sign. Absolutely. We started the year only looked at the vix, someone called it we began as a teenager and it quickly began to be over 80 over a short time. We are looking at this 30 level, that is good because it bodes well for the sentiment and calmer markets and individual idiosyncratic stories. That being said, i think the
Volume on the s p 500. There was commitment on this rally. Taylor start with the chart i am showing you in my terminal. You asked about hedging activities. Look at this chart, or the lack of hedging. People have an minding bullish call options, but not a lot of bearish put options. They are down very low. Buying puts could have cost you a lot of money. That is why we are seeing this rally. I want to look at the individual movers, American Airlines jumping after a 40 gain yesterday. They are seeing a 70 increase in demand. Suspending in some markets because of demand. It was up 100 at one point earlier. I was chatting with remain, this is a romaine. Typically an equity is worth nothing but if you are optimistic on travel, you are buying the shares no matter what they are worth. Crude approaching 40 a barrel and tiffanys, a stock the three of us continue to talk about, up 6. 5 . For will maintain their bid the jewelry maker, but there is a lot of debate. Lets show you this chart. All of
The tech index on the s p 500, you can see that reflected in the nasdaq losing at another record high. Not only do we have amazon and apple and nvidia higher, but tesla, people had turned their back on it a year ago, impressing all the way. Taylor i should have been the buyer at take private share price is where i shouldve been. One other comment about this market, financials. Citigroup is up 6 , wells fargo off 2 or so. 9 area really getting a lot of financials, particularly consumer facing stocks off 5 . A bank off something up to 9 certainly catches my attention, as we have been talking about this rotation into the valley naturals the financials. A reversal today. Caroline it really is when you are seeing the bond crescendo across the board. 10year yield down almost nine basis points. This is feeling into the pain today. Citigroup private Bank Investment officer, going to see so much continued bond buying from the fed . If you think about it, you have got two contradictory forces. O