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Dow kissed and pierced 40,000, rate cut expectations remain in focus despite mixed economic signals

Dow kissed and pierced 40,000, rate cut expectations remain in focus despite mixed economic signals
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ECB s Schnabel identifies services inflation as primary concern

ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel acknowledged that the consensus that the path to disinflation is proving to be "quite bumpy," especially as the process is in its "last mile". The "biggest concern" is the persistent inflation within the services sector, which remains stubbornly high.

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Disappointing GDP Growth and Rising Inflation Spark Risk Sentiment U-Turn

Risk sentiment took a sharp downturn following the release of US Q1 GDP data, which revealed weaker-than-expected economic growth alongside an acceleration in both headline and core PCE price indexes. This combination suggests that the US economy may be caught in a challenging cycle where high interest rates are dampening economic activity without effectively curbing inflationary pressures. In response, DOW futures plummeted by over -300 pts at the time of writing, signaling a steep market open, while 10-year Treasury yield is making moves to break 4.7% mark.

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USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar Near Top Of Recent Range

USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar Near Top Of Recent Range
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Chinese Investors Still Ponder Impact of Authorities to Arrest Equity Sell-off

Asian equities mostly trade with modest gains this morning. Chinese investors still ponder the impact of the authorities to arrest the equity sell-off (CSI 300 +0.63%). Later today, there are again few data with market moving potential in US and EMU. We look out whether there are any further spill-overs of Moody’s cutting the rating of New York Community Bancorp to junk to broader (US) equity sentiment. Fed speakers include governors Kugler, Collins, and Barkin. In an interview with the FT, ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel warned that lower borrowing costs could cause inflation to flare up again, given a good reason against the ECB adjusting the policy stance hastily. Regarding trading today, it probably will remain difficult for yields to break above YTD peak levels without any high profile news. The dollar rally also slows but given underlying euro weakness, at test of the EUR/USD 1.0712/24 remains possible.

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