Manus yesterday we broke the news that there was a ratcheting higher in the tariff wars wars. What are the implications . The economy is stable. They will adjust Economic Policy as is appropriate. It really is about the next response lever from china for me. Nejra questions are being asked about whether they need to do more to fuel credit and support the property sector, loosen some of the controls. Some of the reaction we are seeing is not because of pmi, because they show a little more pressure from trade, but more because of the response and the words weve had from authorities today. Manus lets talk about the rest of the response mechanism. Steven major said, im talking about ground zero for trade. The new Zealand Dollar. A lower move. The market believes you are going to see a much more aggressive repricing. Cutprobability of another from the kiwi. The shorts are the highest since november. Have a look at the yuan. What is the correlation between the negative yielding bonds and gol
I. M. F. To eliminate unfair competitive advantage thats been created by chinas action. This is according to Treasury Department statement. Remember, the last time that the Treasury Department had a policy report on the Foreign Exchanges, it was back in may and they stopped short of labeling china a currency manipulater. They havent done that since 1994. And the fact remains that there is a 2015 trade facilitation and trade enforcement act and china really does not tick all of the three different criteria. We are talking about minimum 20 billion trade surplus with the u. S. China does tick. But were not talking about repeated interventions in the currency markets or current accounts in excess of 3 of g. D. P. The fact that the Treasury Department went ahead with labeling currency ma china a currency manipulater will have to wait to see on what basis that has been done. There are analysts who have said there could be a currency manipulater designation through the older, 1988 omnibus tra
Thats a nice beat. Alix this looks pretty good. David therefore, the premarket is down. [laughter] alix maybe it is capex . Like you mention, monetize a bull daily active users beat. Bulloks like monetize a daily activele users beat. David theyve been doing a good job getting more money in the door. They still got a ways to go. 2 3 of the rate of they look like good numbers from twitter. Alix joining us now are evan brown, ubs Asset Management head of macro, and bloombergs paul sweeney. One of the big issues for twitter really focuses on ly activea bull dai users, the people that come back every single day. Thats what advertisers want. Twitter cant really compete on t versus the facebooks versus the facebooks of the world. Thats the kind of metric twitter really taps to advertisers. Ared one thing people looking at is geography. They had really favorable numbers in japan last year. It is expected they will be under the number this year in the u. S. Paul they make so much more money off
Rates because they have already accounted for trade. Id weve taken caracalla weve taken care of that, i didnt have to worry about every up and down in trade negotiations. The nature of the war is that you have titfortat going on all the time. It is not reasonable for Monetary Policy to respond to all of these threats and counter threats. Weve already taken that into account. Trade regime uncertainty is high , and we are putting that into the Monetary Policy calculus. Alix then you have a three month tenure curve that doesnt want to listen threemonth10 year curve that doesnt want to listen. David i dont think markets believe him. Alix it is an extraordinary day shaking out. Equities continue to climb. We are seeing some followthrough buying, watching some moving averages. In asset classes, it is a really unbelievable day. Money flooding into all bonds. Europe. Ves over in almost 60 basis points in the tenure german bund yield. Amazing actions by Central Banks across the world, new zeala
Fed. David today is jobs day. Last night, july 4 celebrations, including in boston led by alix steel and carol massar. It does strike me as i talk to you over in europe that one of the really iconic moments is an overture written by a russian composer, tchaikovsky, about a european war in 1812. It is kind of ironic. Incidentally, i remember trying to play that. With all the cannons firing, very difficult. But i digress. Seeing the market may be not hoping for them many fireworks. Lets have a look at the data right now. S p futures pointing downward. European equity markets a little bit sluggish. The euro is a little weaker. German data came in disappointing. Yields on the u. S. 10 year around the 1. 96 level. Weve seen selling in stocks and bonds in the european morning. Ive put iron ore in the data check today, not oil, because we seem big drops in iron ore in the Asian Session once again. It has been dropping like a stone. Story ise iron ore really quite something this morning. It is