now um, where all the adults are vaccinated. all the adolescents are vaccinated, 12 to 17, we would not feel this urgency. but we ve got a train wreck going on, in the south, where nobody s vaccinated and schools are about to open. so some of them are open. that s the warmup. this is what i m worried about. i am going to get this next question in before we before i lose you here because you told me months ago that we would see a red state/blue state divide over covid. you were just talking about it. sure enough, that s what s happening, especially in florida and texas where the gop governors are going against experts. so, florida has about 6.5% of the u.s. population. but about 20% of the hospitalizations and cases. you know, as i was talking to you on the commercial break about how, you know, coming up for the fall and and winter, are we gonna see that it s is it going to get worse? how much worse is this going to get, doctor? well, that s the big unknown, right? i m
that would lead to three times the number of infected vaccinated people ending up in hospital. a small change could make a big difference. in england, the big unknown is how behaviour will change from next week when legal controls on social distancing and mask wearing dropped. if there is a quick return to pre pandemic behaviour with a lot more contacts and less caution, modellers predict there could be 2,000 hospital admissions per day, although in the worst case scenario, it could be nearer 4,000. but if there is a more cautious return, spaced over several months, there will be far fewer admissions and less impact the nhs. 0nce legal restrictions are lifted, we don t know how each individual will act, but if each of them acts cautiously, wearing a mask, working
the number of covid patients being admitted to hospital has doubled in the past ten days to more than 500 a day, but if we look at december, to the point when daily cases were the same as they are now, then there were more than 2,000 admissions a day, four times the rate now. the difference is down to the protection from vaccines. they could be as much as 98% effective at preventing serious illness with the delta variant. but if it s just a bit less, let s say 94% effective, that would lead to three times the number of infected vaccinated people ending up in hospital. a small change could make a big difference. in england, the big unknown is how behaviour will change from next week when legal controls on social distancing and mask wearing are dropped. if there is a quick return
hospital. a small change could make a big difference. in england, the big unknown is how behaviour will change from next week when legal controls on social distancing and mask wearing dropped. if there is a quick return to pre pandemic behaviour with a lot more contacts and less caution, modellers predict they could be 2000 hospital admissions per day although in the worst case scenario, it could be nearer 4000. worst case scenario, it could be nearer4000. but worst case scenario, it could be nearer 4000. but if there is a more cautious return, spaced over several months, there will be far fewer admissions and less impact the nhs. 0nce legal restrictions are lifted, we don t know how each individual will act but if each of them acts cautiously, wearing a mask working from home where possible, that may result in a massive reduction in the size of the epidemic wave. emit
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