so there is going to be an uptick in vote for hillary clinton. my estimate is that would gain her about 20,000 votes. that would not be enough when you face a 75,000 gap. why is our decision desk still not calling pennsylvania then? because there s a large number of provisional ballots that were disproportionately cast in philadelphia, that may take days to count. estimate here is that it could be upwards of 3% of the statewide total, cast provisionally. so there could still be counting in pennsylvania. that s a lot to overcome. potentially, though, there s a large pool somewhat large pool of votes out there. michigan is pretty straightforward. but wisconsin is the other one i want to focus on. again, must-win for hillary clinton. what s the gap? 85,000 votes. what is the reason our decision desk is not calling wisconsin? it has to do with mill aukee county. big democratic county.
frankly even california and texas, in some areas where the outcome of the state is not in doubt but what s going on i think is really important. sort of asking, how-to guide to watch the election tonight as results start coming in at 7:00. the first thing that will pop up and say to you, jackie, uh-huh! depends on the state. i think we might know florida very early, because two-thirds of folks have voted there. such a big deal in florida. can t get past t. really is. i will talk a little about my home state of ohio. i m watching cuyahoga county. turnout matters. a big democratic county. also a little bit, a little known auto county, a dealer pointed out today it has gone, picked the actual, you know, president for, has the longest streak running in ohio. a long time. and feelings when people say ron brownstein, ohio is no longer the bellwether? does that hurt your feelings? do you take it personally? maybe a little.
that s going in today in clark county, which is a big democratic county. that s las vegas. they re building towards what will probably be a 65 or 70,000 vote lead if the pattern holds. it s mirroring 2012 very closely. in 2012, barack obama ended up winning the state by seven points. i don t think hillary clinton is being to quite get there. but if these numbers hold, and there aren t some really strange anomalies in the last three days, she s probably got a pretty solid lead here, lawrence. speaking of strange, there is a cnn poll out that shows they believe clark county is going or the trump by one point. they have it at 46-45. and the state of nevada by six points. but the clark county thing doesn t make sense based on what you said about the early voting. well, if that s true, then sean hannity is going to win a peabody award too, lawrence there is just no chance that donald trump is ahead by one point in a county that has
very well here in early voting and absentee ballots so far, lawrence. they have about a 50,000 ballot lead. that s going in today in clark county, which is a big democratic county. that s las vegas. they re building towards what will probably be a 65 or 70,000 vote lead if the pattern holds. it s mirroring 2012 very closely. in 2012, barack obama ended up winning the state by seven points. i don t think hillary clinton is being to quite get there. but if these numbers hold, and there aren t some really strange anomalies in the last three days, she s probably got a pretty solid lead here, lawrence. speaking of strange, there is a cnn poll out that shows they believe clark county is going or the trump by one point. they have it at 546-45. and the state of nevada by six points. but the clark county thing doesn t make sense based on what you said about the early voting. well, if that s true, then