a huge question two new polls just out show americans largely agree with the verdict, but there s more to that. cnn s harry enten is back with us. what are you seeing on this area? yeah. the horse race. the quick question we were talking about on friday, would we see a massive change in the numbers not really so far, right. this is the one poll that we have. it s a reuters ipsos poll. the trump versus biden margin. look, pre new york conviction, the two of them were tied now post-conviction. we see joe biden ahead, but again, no clear leader. well, within the margin of error, joe biden plus two, i should note, it ll be interesting to watch kate. are there other polls that come out that show this same pattern because a two-point movement, if it s shown across multiple poles, could be very problematic for the former present because it s racist. so tight at this particular point, just one pole out, not very much movement at both take us into the number though. why such little change?
it was particularly pronounced, something we see with white voters, too, in education divide, hispanic voters without a college degree. this is what that demographic looked like in 2018. democrats won it by 44 points. in the 2020 election among hispanic voters without a degree, trump broke 40%. the biden margin was down to just 14%, a 30-point swing right there. that was the biggest shift we saw within the hispanic vote. hispanic voters, in some ways that mirrors a trend, talking about white voters with no degree, how they ve been trending strongly towards republicans. you see a trend in the republican direction with hispanic voters. what does it mean for 2022? take a look. this is the hispanic population states with the largest hispanic populations. one thing i would note here is nevada, where there s a hot senate race this year, democrats trying to hang on, the hispanic population 29%, but of all these
republicans who redrew the lines in texas the demographic changes in texas were making a lot of these republican-held seats vulnerable. they redrew the lines dramatically and you see a noticeable lack of yellow. there are 38 and a grand total, you see them, there are three where the trump/biden margin was within ten points in 2020. so a lot of republican seats were fortified by this. some democratic seats were fortified as a tradeoff but not a lot of competition. and what it does, a couple of these primaries worth keeping an eye on tonight i would circle three republicans here, van taylor, chip roy, and dan crenshaw. the same thing happened in each one of these three districts is what we re talking about on those last couple of charts. these were all politically competitive districts under the old map. they are dramatically republican districts like 15, 20 point republican districts.