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Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president and the party in charge are performing gradually hardening. Conditions can improve or deteriorate, but the direction, generally speaking, doesn’t reverse.

United statesJames campbellDonald trumpDavid wassermanBarack obamaAmy walterBill clintonSeth masketBiden gallupAmerican political science associationUniversity of denverQuinnipiac universityGallup organizationPresident bidenWorld warLabor day