管濤：減少主要央行的貨幣政策溢出效應目前比較困難 sina.com.tw - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from sina.com.tw Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Asleep at the Wheel at the Federal Reserve
One major way in which the economic facts have changed radically has been that budget policy has become substantially more expansive than Jerome Powell had anticipated last year.
John Maynard Keynes famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?”
Evidently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell does not subscribe to Keynes’s view. Despite the major changes in the monetary policy facts over the past few months, Powell sees no reason to change his earlier commitment to an ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy for the next few years. For this error in monetary policy judgment, the country is likely to pay very dearly.
my god. so this is going to be interesting. a quick thought on the iran thing. your prediction for 2014 would be that israel will or will not strike? i ve been making this prediction on this show for so many years that it will strike that i have to stop and ask myself what has kept it from striking? i think the issue has been capacity. can they actually do the job and the internal politics because even at the highest levels of the israeli security cabinet there are doubts about whether they can accomplish something that is worth the candle so to speak. the america that world will watch most attentively is janet yellin. what will she be like at the fed? everyone has assumed that she ll be much more comfortable with a very expanding monetary policy but the fed already began
detapering. she ll be similar to where the bernanke fed was. in style, she ll be calm and considered and very well respected very fast and if as seems plausible her number two will be a top notch team there. i think that it s a tough thing to do. this shift from starting to taper to then indicating that you ll continue to taper without scaring financial markets, they messed it up in 2013. summer of 2013. taper shot was a misstep by the fed. they did the introduction of actual taper this month extremely well. so far so very good. they convinced markets that tapering is not tightening. the test is can they continue that. much depends on how the u.s. economy does. i think she and the fed have every capacity to do that well? when you look around the world, what are you watching in 2014?