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Let’s begin by defining our terms. Herd immunity is the hazy, long-promised end of the pandemic, but its requirements are quite specific. Jennie Lavine, a biologist at Emory University, likens it to wet logs in a campfire. If there’s enough water in the logs if there’s enough immunity in a population “you can’t get the fire to start, period,” she says. To be more technical about it, a population reaches herd immunity when the average number of people infected by a single sick person falls below one. Patient zero might infect another person, but that second person can’t infect a third. This is what happens with measles, polio, and several other diseases for which vaccines have achieved herd immunity in the United States. A case might land here, but the spark never finds much dry fuel. The outbreak never sustains itself.

United statesSouth africaJennie lavineMarc lipsitchBenhur leeMichael osterholmJason mclellanJames hamblinEmory universityInfectious disease researchUniversity of texas at austinUniversity of minnesotaIcahn school of medicineFred hutchinson cancer research centerIcahn schoolஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில்