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US retail sales miss February estimates as stimulus boost wanes

The reading misses the median economist estimate for a 0.5% contraction. Retail sales are a popular gauge of consumer spending, which counts for 70% of US GDP. Spending at US retailers slid in February as the effects of stimulus enacted late last year petered out. US retail sales contracted 3% last month, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected sales to decline by 0.5% in February. January s blowout reading was revised higher to 7.6%. The reading marks the fourth decline in five months. Retail sales are seen as a key gauge of overall consumer spending, and since such spending drives roughly 70% of economic activity, the Census Bureau s monthly report has taken on new importance as much of the US sits in prolonged lockdowns.

US factory output falls for first time since April amid winter storms

Mario Anzuoni/Reuters The decline is the first since COVID-19 outbreaks spread across the US in April 2020. Manufacturing supported the broader economy throughout the pandemic as factory demand held strong. Factory production in the US contracted for the first time since the early months of the pandemic last month, signaling that one of the more insulated pockets of the economy is still vulnerable to the pandemic and its fallout. The Federal Reserve s measure of manufacturing output fell 3.1% in February, according to data published Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a gain of 0.2%. January s reading was revised higher to a 1.2% gain.

33-year low female labor participation shows need for new policies: JPM

Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images Federal family-leave and childcare support policies can help close gender gaps, JPMorgan said. Female labor participation sits at 33-year lows and well below mens level due to COVID-19 fallout. Gender-responsive policies can counter the disproportionate hit women faced during the pandemic. Full economic recovery in the US might not be enough to close gender gaps exacerbated by the pandemic, JPMorgan researchers said. The coronavirus and its economic fallout disproportionately slammed American women, with female-dominated sectors like hospitality and education hit the hardest by lockdowns. The greater share of domestic work that women perform in American society also prompted many to leave work and focus on caretaking. Where men made up the bulk of job losses seen during the financial crisis, the current

US economy to grow 8% in 2021, infrastructure boost to follow: Goldman

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images Goldman Sachs lifted its 2021 US growth forecast to 8% from 7.7%, citing new stimulus for the boost. The bank also expects Biden and Democrats to pass at least $2 trillion in infrastructure spending. That sum could hit $4 trillion if the deal includes education, child-care, and health-care spending. Goldman Sachs joined its Wall Street peers in revising its US economic outlook on Saturday, pegging an increasingly bullish forecast to Democrats latest stimulus package. The team led by Jan Hatzius now expects US gross domestic product to grow 8% in 2021 on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, according to a note published Saturday. That s up from the previous estimate of 7.7%. The bank s full-year growth estimate climbed to 7% from 6.9%.

Fast economic recovery could result in rotation that hurts stock market

Hopes for a fast recovery are lifting market volatility and threatening record highs in stocks. First it led to a rise in Treasury yields, making bonds more appealing than highly valued stocks. With inflation fears rising, investors are dumping tech stocks, weighing on major indexes. The US stock market is at a turning point, and the economic recovery is probably why. For investors holding last year s hottest stocks, a likely strong rebound in the economy isn t looking so welcome. After tech giants drove indexes to record highs last year, the prospect of a full reopening has dented the sector s appeal. Investors began dumping Treasurys at a faster pace in February as the likelihood of a new stimulus package raised expectations for near-term inflation. Cash was pulled from defensive assets and pushed into stocks most likely to thrive during a reopening.

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