Very little chance democrats hold on to the senate. it s probably a very good night for republicans. that s a candidate who even a few weeks ago was left for dead by some national republican groups because they assumed he was simply too flawed a candidate to win against a fairly healthy incumbent. so if that race is going against democrats, can you probably expect a very long night for them even if you don t know the final results. so let s talk about the house. right now we certainly there is an expectation that republicans are, let s say, they re favored to take it back. but perhaps not by the margins that some thought earlier this year. we should underscore historical trends do favor the party out of power. there are a couple race there s you ll be watching as bellwethers? sure. one place to start is virginia. there is several races of varying degrees of democratic strength. and you can see how far the fire wall gets breached from there. if republicans take one of those competit
About the campaign. let s bring in nbc news senior national political reporter sahil kapur. you re looking at key races to watch once polls close tonight that could be bellwethers for what s to come. we touched on those. what do you have? that s right, mika. election day is here and there are some races that election m people say will give us an early indication of where the night is headed. indiana closes at 7:00 p.m. there s a district in the northwest around gary where frank mrvan is running. he should be okay but if not, that could be an indicator of a good night for republicans. in three virginia, there are three democratic women in different districts. elaine luria. you might know her from the january 6th committee. she got shuffled into a republican-leaning district and if survives could be a good night for the democrats, they might even hold the house.
Time but there are people in pennsylvania, probably georgia too that are splitting their ticket. stephanie gosk in pennsylvania for us, thank you so much for starting us off. i always love to know what you re watching. this is such a nail biter for anyone who s worked on campaigns and politics. we all know the stakes. we ve been talking about the stakes for the last really five years, but especially the last two. what are going to be sort of your bellwethers for what you re watching early in the night. clearly all these mid western states, i m watching gretchen whitmer s race closely. she s been such a strong candidate, and i think things really did turn in michigan after the dobbs decision. of course pennsylvania that race is razor thin and the stakes are high. i think the most interesting thing and you spoke to it there is that folks now know, and
You re getting distracted by politics. i need for you to focus in and i let that play on the faulkner focus this week. several minutes before he could get a democratic crowd in hand enough to then talk about the message of winning. i understand the point. florida is a state where we are not nearly as competitive as i would hope that we would be and other states are bellwethers for where swing states are going to go. that s what s trending in florida lately. i ve never said that have been strong, people are voting on the economy. harris: literally bread and butter. heating, cost of gas. harris: and bread and butter. which i do enjoy as well. but what you are doing for what you would expect to be a run away win for the republicans possibly 30, 40 seats let s say taking the senate back it is remarkably close. two big polls, nbc and abc
Where you are seeing dr. oz spend a lot of time down there because this is really the focus for swing voters. what are you seeing playing out in pennsylvania three days out? bucks county is the bellwether of bellwethers. it s gone back and forth between republicans and democrats. dr. oz got the trump endorsement, and he needed to to get the base energized last night. to win this election between oz and fetterman, he s got to win the suburban voters looking for the more moderate candidate. his campaign ads are targeted towards these suburban philadelphia counties like bucks county. he says he s not the extremist in the race, trying to portray fetterman as soar to the left to win over these middle of the road, bucks county voters. sandra: we were playing out a video with president trump standing behind dr. oz in latrobe, pennsylvania. why is that so important? that s conservative territory out west, and that s where the base needs to show up also for dr. oz and other republican candi