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some don t. the perfect pundit wants to have the perfect prediction, but there are known and unknown events in a political campaign. the debates can move the numbers some. for example you have economic crises and foreign policy crises. if you play poker, you re used to playing your hand well. you catch a lucky card or you play bad and catch the card of your life. you used to think about improbability. you are calmer when you watch the he ebb and flow of polls an political news. you talk about weather forecasting has improved over the years, and the glitch that sort of caused the ibm computer to beat gary in the 1997 chess game. what are the worst at predicting? what do we get wrong more than anything else? in general the field of economic prediction is a pretty bad example. for example, in december of 2007, most people in the wall