April 1, 2021
Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it.
1.
Nick Castellanos is a top 10 FanGraphs Points OF. His Depth Charts projection pegs him at a .337 wOBA, 32nd highest among OF. The market likes him a bit more – his $19.50 average salary in first-year FanGraphs Points leagues is 24th among OF. I think those are both too low. I was going to boldly predict a .360 wOBA, but THE BAT X has him at .361, so I feel the need to be bolder. Top 10 OF. Castellanos has been hitting the ball harder dating back to August 2019 and posted a career-high walk rate in 2020. He chased fewer pitches, too. I think he brings the strike outs back down, gets better batted ball luck, and breaks out in a big way.
April 1, 2021
Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. This one will be a tad bit bolder.
1. Manuel Margot is a top 30 outfielder.
Player A: 15 HR, 25 SBs, .256 avg
Player B: 18 HR, 21 SBs, .275 avg
Player A is Margot’s Steamer 600 projection and Player B is Starling Marte’s Steamer 600 projection. Clearly, you can’t guarantee 600 plate appearances for Margot, I love him this season considering he has been going outside the top 200. His defense should give him some leeway and with the injury risk on the Rays, it is not unlikely he finds his way to 600+ plate appearances.
2. Patrick Corbin is a top 15 SP
Most of the Giants
Rojas is smashing in spring and a Kole Calhoun injury puts him in line for a spot on Opening Day, but Asdrúbal Cabrera is kind of a perfect platoon (while Rojas is filling in for an OF, he is likely to play 2B and send Ketel Marte back into CF). Peralta has always been affordable so his platooning is covered by his 285 ADP. Lux
could be platooned because it’s the Dodgers, but manager Dave Roberts seems to be interested in him as a full-time player.
The Giants could realistically run 4-5 platoons with Tommy La Stella/Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt/Darin Ruf 러프, Alex Dickerson/Austin Slater, and Brandon Crawford/Wilmer Flores all pairing up pretty nicely (with Donovan Solano shifting to SS, not Flores). They will face all nine of these arms so I think the short ends of these platoons definitely have some NL-Only value.
3.4
Once again, Jarrod Dyson finds himself atop the Pod SB bull board. He was in that very same spot heading into the 2020 season as well, and although he whipped both the projections, Pod’s more optimistic forecast was significantly closer. This year, both projections are forecasting a slight decline in stolen base prowess, but the gap between the two actually grew marginally. Obviously, Dyson’s age is tripping up the computer forecast, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down is basestealing yet. A reserve role is actually beneficial as he’ll pinch run more frequently and add steals without adding plate appearances.
C.J. Cron +85 to 188 (56:44)
Myles Straw +82 to 238 (1:02:54)
Tejay Antone +73 to 270 (1:08:40)
Nick Senzel +55 to 224 (1:12:10)
Jake McGee +51 to 270 (1:15:04)
Aaron Hicks +43 to 240 (1:16:55)
Joc Pederson +41 to 256 (1:21:18)
Ty France +41 to 290 (1:25:30)
Gavin Lux +40 to 218 (1:27:44)
Shohei Ohtani +40 to 176
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.
You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.