Have we seen this hurricane season before?
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Flooding from Harvey. Image from click2houston.com
A lot of research goes into his prediction and, as I discussed, a couple of important factors are the state of La Niña/El Niño and the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean waters. Specifically, presence of La Niña = a busy season, and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures = a busy season. We have both a weak La Niña and warm water, thus, his forecast of 17-8-4 is above the average season of 14-7-3.
In addition to the many parameters Dr. Klotzbach pores over, he also examines the historical climate record. What years in the past looked a lot like this year from a climate perspective and just what kind of tropical activity did THOSE years have? Perhaps something is to be gleaned from the past. In his tropical meteorology report, he says specifically:
In April 2020, we were all still reeling from the daily bombardment of bad news about the coronavirus epidemic with no idea the actual toll it would take on us over the next year. Most of us did not expect that hundreds of thousands of lives would be lost to the virus and millions of people would suffer economic hardship because of it. And let s not even go into the trauma of a unprecedented presidential election in which facts were twisted and partisanship flourished.
Perhaps this isn t the most uplifting way to describe a pleasant day of imbibing and dining. The past year has been a tough one and the prospect of social gatherings, dinner dates and live music again is filling us with hope. The vaccine roll-out has meant that many of us have been immunized and hopefully protected from COVID-19 or at least, its severity. While wearing masks is still the protocol for most of us, going out to dinner no longer feels like a life or death gamble.