Although the Federal Budget does not project a return to surplus, Budget forecasts are fairly conservative and revenue could continue to grow with commodity prices, according to UBS.
MacroBusiness
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Via the excellent George Tharenou:
Budget: only $8bn budget improvement over 5 years; given $96bn stimulus
The Australian Government Budget, relative to the MYEFO released in Dec-20, forecasts a far smaller than expected cumulative improvement over the 5 years to 24/25 of only $8bn. Positively, 20/21 is a material $37bn better at $161bn (UBSe: $148bn, mkt: ~$160bn), or 7.8% of GDP (was $198bn or 9.9%) – albeit still the largest deficit since WW-II. However, the deficit beat by just $2bn in 21/22 at $106bn (UBS: $58bn) or 5.0% of GDP (was $108bn or 5.3%). Indeed, the deficit in 24/25 at $57bn or 2.4% of GDP is actually larger than at MYEFO. The materially stronger than expected economy improved the budget position by a cumulative $104bn over 5 years. Surprisingly however, this was almost completely offset by policy decisions (i.e. that deteriorate the budget balance), which provided far more than expected additional fiscal stimulus of