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They might not be far from the truth.
The reason for the increased Israeli aerial activity, and especially the growing number of warplanes entering Lebanese airspace, could have something to do with Iran’s vow to avenge the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the former head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who was assassinated a year ago by the Americans.
It’s unlikely that Iran would provoke full-scale war with the United States by directly attacking American forces. A much safer course of action for Tehran would be giving Lebanon’s Hezbollah a green light to launch its missiles at Israel.