campaign is going to be unlike any other. yes, the new hampshire primary was a decisive win for donald trump. the kind of win that squashes any momentum for his one remaining challenger nikki haley. but buried in the results are also some very hard truths about americans views of donald trump, trumpism and the state of our democracy. as the bull work put it today, nikki haley has beaten donald trump in iowa. two groups of voters would be deciding the presidential nomination. the first group is a republican primary and caucus voters who acknowledge that tmp legitimately lost the 2020 presidential election. the second group, which overlaps with the first, is republican primary and caucus voters who accept that if trump were to be convicted of a crime, it would be unfit to serve as president. exit polling from nbc news shows that while the republican base may have stuck with trump, just 13% of hah lee voters said they would be satisfied with trump s winning the gop nomination.
call themselves conservative and will likely dominate his way through the rest of the primaries despite what nikki haley does or does not do. but november 5th, 2024, is not a primary race and a candidate cannot rely on the strength of their base alone, and that is where it is helpful to read between the lines of last night s vote. unlike iowa, which is a lock for the gop, new hampshire s electorate is swingy trump lost moderates to haley, two lost college graduates to haley, and three, lost independents to haley, it is a problem, especially when 68% of independents flat out said they will not vote for him. and 42% of primary voters say they don t think someone convicted of a crime would be fit to be president, if that happens to donald trump. a reminder, for all we talk about the general election, what we really mean is the general election in six specific states. arizona, nevada, georgia, michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. you see them there. so let us untangle what we k