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Yves here. In addition to Wolf’s caveats about the possible less than upstanding reasons for a spike in the number of new businesses, keep in mind that 90% of new businesses fail in the first three years. So while this is good news about the potential for recovery, don’t underestimate the amount of attrition. Although I did not follow new business formation in the old normal, my recollection is one of the reasons for the high propensity to failure was that a lot of the new businesses were restaurants, which are more difficult propositions than talented chefs might believe. Needless to say, they aren’t a major category now. Instead, retail dominates. With America having had an extremely high level of retail space per capita among major economies, it remains to be seen if enough thinning of that herd has taken place.

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