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Fed shifts talk to 'scenarios' as policy grows less certain

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a May 1 press conference he didn't want to talk about economic "hypotheticals," but that's what he and other U.S. central bank officials have shifted towards in discussing monetary policy that has hit an uncertain juncture in the effort to tame inflation. Dropping what had been explicit guidance about the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year, Powell and other Fed officials are instead focusing attention on broadly different near-term paths the economy might follow, and their likely reaction to each case. Former Fed officials and staffers with experience attending meetings of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee say that's a sign of just how uncertain policymakers feel right now and is meant to shift attention from the detailed economic and policy projections they produce each quarter and onto a wider array of potential outcomes.

Fed Shifts Talk to 'Scenarios' as Policy Grows Less Certain

Fed Shifts Talk From Rate Cuts to Economic 'Scenarios'

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Where Are Interest Rates Headed? What to Expect From the Fed Meeting

Officials are likely to leave rates unchanged and could temper investors’ expectations of earlier rate cuts