What are central banks planning to do – stay loose or raise interest rates? moneyweek.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from moneyweek.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
There is a strong sense of the economy changing quickly. You can see it in the volume of transactions that have driven house prices up by 10% in the year to May, and in reports of staff shortages from pubs, restaurants, haulage companies and housebuilders.
Some of the inflation was inevitable, and some is easily explained. Consumers were bound to spend more freely after lockdown and no one can be surprised that companies are trying to catch up on lost trade, including by pushing up prices. The whoosh in the housing market is partly down to the rush to beat the return of stamp duty. And blockages in global supply chains, particularly for computer chips for new vehicles, have contributed to a surge in prices of secondhand cars.
As the nation pulled out of the pandemic, manufacturing was remarkably robust, taking up the slack from a weakened service sector affected by lockdowns and social distancing.
In the last two months, industrial production has been under strain. It fell in April as a result of North Sea disruption and in May (and perhaps subsequent months) as a consequence of microchip shortages. Motor production lines have shut down and workers have been sent home.
There is no shortage of construction projects, as anyone counting the cranes over city skylines could testify.
House building is booming, supported by Help To Buy, record low interest rates and the evaporating stamp-duty holiday. One of the wettest Mays since 1862 might explain the stumble in the latest data.
ALEX BRUMMER: A recovery like no other dailymail.co.uk - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from dailymail.co.uk Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.