campaigns out west, his running mate is preparing to deliver what has been billed as a major policy speech in ohio. nbc s ron mott is traveling with congressman paul ryan and joins me by phone. you re in cleveland i think, about to head to the speech. what are we expecting from paul ryan today? hey there, andrea. good day to you. i apologize for any noise. we re in the motorcade headed to cleveland state university where congressman ryan is expected to deliver this big speech that was that the campaign is calling an important speech to get out the voters, particularly i think they re trying to reach those voters perhaps in voting for president obama four years ago, particularly those in the midwest and ohio and wisconsin, iowa and the like, and i think it s no accident we re back here in ohio. they want to win this state. this is a firewall in a lot of ways for the president. but the message today is going to be specifically geared i think in a lot of ways, seen parts of the speech
as mitt romney. they both have more money than they can spend in the next 13 days. [ inaudible ]. sorry, andrea. well, i mean, not just the campaign money, i mean all of the money. both sides are inundated with money trying to figure out where to spend it. at this stage, though, tom, do you think the president still has a shot in virginia and how do you match up the close george allen and tim kaine senate race? i think the president certainly has a shot in virginia and that says a lot about his momentum. tim kaine s been able to create some separation from george allen and i think is definitely the favorite in virginia in the senate race. ultimately john and why agree there s only one poll that matters and that s what happens on election day so virginia will come down to the wire, i think the president has a great shot at it, tim kaine s got a real good shot at that and i think virginians gave a look at mitt romney and george allen. they weren t sold necessarily on a second term.
monday, andrea, four days of interviews, and on monday among likely voters we had it obama 49, romney 48. on tuesday that was the friday through monday interviews. we had it romney 49/obama 48. what does that tell me? it tells me the race is very, very close and yes, the washington post does key for that astute analysis. i think we have to be careful not to make too much of slight movements. we re doing these tracking polls because i think it s fascinating to watch the last couple weeks how things play out, but 49/48, will 48/49 it s close nationally. keep your eye on the swing states. one swing state in particular we talk about it almost every day you and i, andrea, ohio. that s the state that mitt romney has to find a way to get back in front of barack obama in. mark your any chicago obviously talking to campaign officials there. want to take you behind the scenes and ask, if you have any better understanding of this
situation, we want, as candidates weigh want those candidates to stay focus on what the american people and constituents are talking about. the romney campaign is probably scratching their head going what do we have to do to keep this last two weeks focused on things that matter most to the american people and this certainly isn t it. michael, we re hearing from mitt romney that the momentum is on their side. we re hearing from the obama campaign they think they have an easier path of 270 through the battleground states. you re a former republican national chairman. what do you think is happening out there? there has been, obviously, andrea, you talked about this and been clear about the trend line since the first debate for romney where he really left a good impression on a lot of americans out there. i think it s been reflected in the polls. the president has battled back and there s a reason why, for example, you had this in your first segment, the firewall of iowa, wisconsin an
reliable turnout voters than democrats. we do have a big registration edge. president obama i believe if the election were held today would win pennsylvania somewhere between three to five points. a solid win, but not the 11 points he won by in 2008. there was a real tidal wave of support for the president then. obviously with the economy being what it is, no incumbent has faired very well in this economy. some have survived but haven t faired as well as they have in the past. the reality the president s going to have to deal with. his message on the economy, the jobs bill that he presented in october is much more likely to jump-start the economy than what governor romney talks about. reducing regulations and cutting taxes. particularly on the wealthy. that hasn t worked. for the last 60 years, andrea, the facts are clear. there s no correlation between lower taxes on the wealthy and job creation. in fact, the ten largest years of job growth in the last 60,