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Where are we going with U S and global trade?

By Dusty Sonnenberg, CCA, Ohio Field Leader: a project of the Ohio Soybean Council and soybean checkoff Agricultural trade was the topic of the first in a series of winter outlook meetings hosted by the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Developmental Economics (AEDE) at The Ohio State University’s College of Food Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (FAES). Dr. Ian Sheldon, Ohio State’s Andersons Chair of Agricultural Marketing, Trade and Policy, led the discussion examining the effects of the pandemic on global trade and U.S. agricultural trade, including an evaluation of the Phase 1 Trade Agreement with China. The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly had an impact on international trade.

Global agriculture trade remains steady through pandemic

Global agriculture trade remains steady through pandemic 2020 overview In April 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimated global trade would be impacted between 13% to 32% due to the pandemic. Fortunately, neither of those were the case. The current WTO forecast is for total 2020 global trade decline to be only about 9.2% with an anticipated rise next year. Without the pandemic, economists were expecting trade to remain consistent on its steady tick up. Fortunately, the largest impact of the pandemic happened fairly immediately from March to May then a slow recovery began. © I. Sheldon, The Ohio State University There s still a considerable amount of uncertainty about the trajectory of trade for the rest of 2020 into 2021, Sheldon explained. Especially now, we re observing a resurgence of Covid-19 both here in North America and in Europe.

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