complicated world, fifth generation fighter jets that can easily create incidents that in turn could enable a crisis. in other words, this is a region that s going to be on the boil for years and years to come. there you can see the countries we re talking about, japan, china, the two richest countries in asia, but next to it lots of small countries that are many concerns. geoff, when you look at this, is it fair to say at the heart of what s going on, the motor that might drive a crisis, as china has gotten richer has become more expansive in its definition of what it considers its vital interests, what it wants to control in its region? absolutely. the last five years china s gone through an important transition saying, this our time. we ve built up this interest in the last five years. ecan start making a claim and that s underlying all of the different tensions that come to
the broader challenge to lay down a longer term strategy that e endures after the crisis of the moment. the obama administration has tried to do that with asia s strategy, but progress has been halting and incomplete. so for all its problems, the real threat to a serious asia strategy comes not from the administration but from congress and maybe the american public. in fact, the difficulties in the execution of the asian pivot raised the broader question, can america have a grand strategy today? obama s basic approach is wise and in many ways a continuation of u.s. foreign policy since bill clinton s presidency, including george w. bush. on the diplomatic front, it has two elements deterrence and engagement. all countries in asia as well as the united states seek deeper
relations with chine into and want to make sure that country does not become an expansionist regional bully. getting the balance between those two elements is hard to do and easy to criticize. there is, however, a broader aspect to asia policy, one that is constructive. at the center of this is the transpacific partnership. it would not only be the largest trade deal in decades if it happened involving most of asia s economies, perhaps including china, but it would strongly reinforce american tile rules about free and open trade worldwide. yet the president has not been able to get the fast track authority that makes it possible to negotiate such a trade deal. the democratic party, once the greatest champion of free trade, has turned its back on it. a sat shift in a once open and optimistic party. and in recent years, republican support for trade has also gotten much weaker.
could escalate into a major exchange. asian countries like to strike poses but it could escalate into something where neither side could pull back and you can have what s been forecast short, sharp war. and you can imagine some crisis of the kind bob is describing, and then neither side, the chinese nor the japanese, can t back down because they can t appear weak to their publics. absolutely. if you look at opinion polls in japan, you get polls of 90% and very similar figures in japan. remember, this is the second and third biggest economies in the world. this is not just two small countries. one of the underlying risks is you get people talking about this idea of a short, sharp war. and this danger sense you get from japan and china and maybe we can have this fight and it can be isolated and we can control it. but it s hard to control. it s hard to contain and it can easily spiral out of control.
america s military strategy in asia requires significant budgets, and these are under pressure from both sides of the aisle. public support for any type of ambitious, generous foreign policy is pretty low these days. the most worrying obstacle to a serious american strategy might seem at first to be a highly technical issue. the administration has proposed reform of the international monetary fund which congressional republicans are blocking. but reforming the agency is crucial to america s future global vote. let me explain. the imf governing board has long been dominated by the united states and europe. as asian countries have become a larger part of the government pie, the obama administration proposed their votes on the board. this mostly would take power away from europe, not the united states. and yet congressional republicans have held up this plan for three years, and they show no signs of being ready to pass it.