military perspective on just how good is the ukrainian military since this buildup since 2014 we ve armed them and the ukrainian insurgents which we re flow planning to arm. of course ambassador taylor was aeroambassador in ukraine. i think they ll agree they ve made considerable progress. we ve had the troops along nato troops. they have work to do. they ve improved significantly. we ve moved hundreds of millions of dollars worth of armaments to them. there are training missions working with them. they will fight, and they will fight hard. and the further the russians go into ukraine because they re moving in that routing from the russian ethnic part in the east
he amass 100,000 troops and not back down? doesn t he have to do something? he s amassed those troops in order to focus the world s attention on his grievances. he will not simply back down in the face of of what the ambassador absolutely correctly calls this unanimity of effort. i think it is going to take some level of serious negotiation. there are areas which we can have a conversation with russia. we need to continue to confront them on this, but we also need to find a way diplomatically to take some of the tension out of the system. i think it s going to be very difficult in the weeks and months ahead. ambassador taylor, has putin accomplished his purpose by having keeping everyone guessing and having all attention on him and his grievances against the nato advances on the eastern flank? andrea, you just said exactly
propaganda, individual assassinations potentially. this has been the russian specialty for the last over a decade the invasion of georgia in 2008, the prior invasion of ukraine 2014. as i score it, andrea, i think there s still about a 20% chance that vladimir putin goes big and tries to go to kiev and change the regime. but i think there s a 60% plus chance there ll be a mix. i think it s unlikely he s going to back down quietly. that is ominous, indeed. ambassador taylor, do you think putin is taking the threat of u.s. and european sanctions serious enough. i think he s taking the threat of sanctions very
seriously, and we hear we hear him constantly raising this. i mean he raised it with president biden. he said, you know, if you put sanctions on us it will disrupt relations. and for generations to come, he said so he s clearly taking sanctions very serious. and i m impressed with the unanimity, with the solidarity, with the unity of the allies. and not just the nato allies. it s eu, it s g7. and i think mr. putin must recognize that solidarity means sanctions should he decide to do that 20% serious invasion the admiral talks about or even some version of the 60% hybrid attacks that he s threatened. just to follow up on both of you with ambassador, why would
physical ifivation also stop diplomacy and induce the sanctions? i think that if president putin either through invasion, coercion, subversion, hybrid attacks, some other way to undermine the stability and the governance of ukraine, if he takes action in that regard the entire international community will respond in a way that lets him know that we know exactly what has occurred here, and there are costs to continue to act that way in the world community. wendy sherman, deputy secretary sherman, thank you very much. thanks for taking time to talk to us today. thank you, andrea. and squloining us now for reaction to that conversation with the deputy secretary, the admiral, formernateo supreme ally commander. and bill taylor, former u.s.