Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showing considering the strength of the data and the shift in Fed rate hike expectations earlier in the week. After all, Fed Funds Futures for mid-2023 added almost 50bps from Tuesday morning before Daly's rate hike comments through Friday's close. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields rose less than 30bps. Also potentially relevant is the fact that yields generally held under the prevailing ceiling of the past 2 weeks at 2.85%, albeit with a brief breakout on Friday afternoon.
The chart below plots mid-2023's Fed Funds Futures (the expected level of the Fed Funds Rate) on the same axis as 10yr yields.  There is ample correlation, to be sure, but notice the blue line break quickly above the opening levels from 2 week's ago and then above the mid-week highs during Friday's sell-off.&am
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