The Treasury has not done any estimates specifically of the likely cost of an Alpine Fault earthquake, but the new research is expected to trigger new economic studies. Pete Connors, the Transport Agency’s system manager for the West Coast and Canterbury, said it met regularly with South Island councils and emergency responders through a group known as AF8 to prepare for quake of that size on the fault.
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New research points to a 75 per cent chance of the Alpine Fault unleashing a major quake by 2068. “Exact predictions of the effects of an Alpine Fault earthquake on transport networks are difficult to make, given there are so many potential variables,” he said.