recent attacks that have killed more than 100 people. and with no clear winner, the elections have led to political gridlock. at last count, prime minister nuri al malaki was two seats behind his main rival, the former prime minister, allawi, who is now struggling to form a coalition government. when i spoke to him this week, he told me that it would take about two months to form a new government, but some would consider that rather optimistic. and with the resurgence in violence, i also asked him if president obama s plan to reduce u.s. forces to 50,000 by this summer was also too optimistic. i think it s possible. i think it should be done. however, the security does not depend on the number of troops available here. the security depends on getting out in the way of sectarianism, or embarking on a course, a real course of reconciliation and
all u.s. forces out by 2011, that is a binding international agreement negotiated with the iraqis. the second is a unilateral obligation that president obama said a month after coming to augus office, at the end of august, down to 50,000 troops. that rise? you have to be testing assumptions. we have no idea what is happening day to day and the assumptions under lining that withdrawal are called into question. would you agree that, ambassador crocker, given the level of violence now, and not just since the election but before the election as well? the violence is a concern but also predictable. the iraqis are tough people. i think they will withstand this. this it is not the violence that concerns me so much, as simply the tough politics of government formation. i think mr. allawi with was optimistic when he said a government could be formed in two months. i think the more realistic deadline is the beginning of ramadan at the at the start of august. but that so i worry a
parties to tehran for talks that is going to happen. allawi is going to go the saudis will be there we will be there it is interesting, the sadrist appeal is this sunni, arab nationalist, iraqi apackers strong roots in iraq, going back hundredses of years. and muqtada al sadr going in iran is part of that i agree with ambassador crocker, that is positive. we haven t seen a sign post of deterioration, haven t seen militias take streets to protect neighborhoods, thing we started to see in 2006. we have to watch it every day. it s hearing you both talk about everything so positive and trying to sort of connect the reality with wiyour rhett richt. i know things got better after the surge in 2007 but we have all been stunned at the level of violence that has come up before the election and since the
to have u.s. down to 50,000 troops, perhaps in the same month that a new government is formed. and that s an extraordinarily long time, four months, five months until that day that you just mentioned. can iraq actually afford that amount of time in a political vacuum? well, first it is not really a political vacuum. the maliki cabinet is fully empowered. the command and control of the civilian leadership over the military is there and we have seen that in their responses to this violence. so, i would not characterize it as a vacuum. obviously works like to see this move quickly, but it is going to be extraordinarily complicated. everybody will be talking to everybody else. and while allawi may have 91 votes, he is still 72 votes short of the necessary majority to form a government. so this will not be easy and it will not be quick. you were there all through