School. We should see 19,000, maybe even 20,000 on the dow by the end of the year. Jack admiral is executive vp of a bank. He thinks the markets are overvalued. Thats the collision. Thats what makes a market. Professor siegel, what causes you to feel that we can move, not just a little bit higher, but rather more significantly higher between now and year end . Do you see the economy as that strong . Well, what i see, i mean, i will admit, i mean, we have moved up in price ahead of the earnings increase. I originally thought we would have to wait until the second half of the year to see that earnings. But let me tell what you i think stock investors are cueing off of. I look at sensitive commodity prices. Were seeing increases in iron ore, aluminum, nickel. The Agriculture Sector is beginning to boom. These sensitive commodity prices, i think, are a signal to an increase in world demand, a better second half and i think thats what stock investors are looking at as a clue to get in befor
Thanks very much. We have a puzzle here. I have the rapid update of gdp in the Fourth Quarter but the data which leads to a downgrade also makes economists optimistic. Here is the data. Q4 tracking 2 . That is down 0. 3 because of the data this morning. Q3 gdp 2. 1 . Thats tracking right now. Here is the Fourth Quarter outlook. Bank of tokyo mitsubishi at the high end at 2. 8 . Goldman sachs, barclays at 2 . Atlanta fed gdp, 1. 8 . Morgan stanley at 0. 9 . Here is the data that brought down the growth forecast despite the down grades though some see reasons for optimism for the Holiday Shopping season. Jobless claims ticking down 12,000 to 260,000. Thats back in that low range weve had before making people optimistic about consumers have jobs for the Holiday Season. Durable goods up better than expected, 3 , and here is the big numbers here. Personal income up 0. 4 but spending doesnt keep pace. Up just 0. 1 which can only mean one thing. The savings rate ticks up. 5. 6 . So whats the
The exchange. Stocks currently moving back up towards highs of the day. Bob, okay, it is a rally but how low is the conviction at this stage . This is a rally but not with a lot of conviction. We need a little more buying enthusiasm. Were not getting it right now. But still 200 points, nothing to sneeze at. We had a nice move up prior to the open because productivity numbers were better. We are now approaching the highs for the day. Little bit of a midday rally. Lets look at the markets in the middle of the day. Right now 3 2 advancing to declining stocks. Heading towards 2 1 very shortly. Moving in that direction. Volumes been moderate. Not saying this is heavy. This is the lightest volume since weve had this volatility. Speaking of volatility, vix is below 30. Just a few points moved there. Dow leaders, fairly broad advance here. Home depot is one of the few dow components up this quarter. These are nice advances. Just not seeing much volume. It is not a normal volume day for most of