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July 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Declines To +10 2%
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May 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Grows To +11 3%
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+9.1 %
There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.
Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.
Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.
Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation
Per the BLS:
U.S. import prices advanced 0.9 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent increase the previous month. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices both contributed to the December rise in import prices. Prices for U.S. exports also rose in December, advancing 1.1 percent, after increasing 0.7 percent in November.
Note that:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on December 2020 Import and Export Price Index Data The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make changes to either the collection method or estimation methodology for the December release of U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes. Survey response rates for December were 5.3-percentage points lower than those in December 2019. A small number of indexes that are normally published were not published in December.
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