month of november of 2018. the party now stands as we just heard from adrian on the verge of winning 40 seats in the u.s. house of representatives, 40. that s if california 21 comes in for the party and that looks very good out there, up 4400 points, the democrat. but i ve been tripredicting thi since the spring. this is hardball, april 35th. i believe the democrats will carry the house. history suggests and the level of this president s popularity suggests they will pick up more than the average 29 seats the party opposing the president gets in the first midterm election. i believe they ll do better, somewhere comfortably between 30 and 40 seats picked up. comfortably. and on september 12th, watch this. i think the democrats have picked up 30 to 40 seats in the house. then again when the election drew closer on october 9th, a month out from the election. well, tonight that prediction is stronger than ever, 30 to 40 seats, the democrats will pick up in the house of representative
did you say i was right in my prediction, adrian? thank you. the democratic caucus vote on speaker isn t the only big vote tomorrow, it s also who s going to be the chair of the congressional black caucus. if all goes according to plan congresswoman karen bass of california will be the next chair of the congressional black caucus, the former speaker of the california assembly, someone to keep an eye on. are we going to have a new speaker in the next two years? any thoughts about that? will nancy pelosi win on january 3rd, floor of the house, become speaker and yet at some point in those two years give it up? i don t think she ll give it up. she s going to win resoundingly. we need her experienced leadership right now. resoundingly? resoundingly. i was thinking she might pull out sometime without notice in 2020 to allow the more moderate democrats not to have to deal with the issue.
they re all squeezing her from the center and left. there are 22 incoming members of the house who said they will vote against her. not enough to keep her from winning the nomination tomorrow but enough to keep her from getting the necessary votes on the house floor come january 3rd when it s all on public vote, all on c-span. adrian, any indication, say she gets 60 votes against her tomorrow like the past, does that tell us anything how she has to turn the screw to get the 218 on january 3rd? she s not going to get 60 or 70 against her. she might get 15, 16, maybe 20 votes. of course it s important to remember this is not publicly known to your foal caucus members. you do possibly know how many voted against her? you do, but look, seth multien has been talking about challenging pelosi. he hasn t been able to pull anything together.
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