called i ll have another have another? heather: we shall see. you are at america s election headquarters and right now president obama is leading in the race for electoral college votes. that is according to real clear politics, which averages several major polls in each state. take a look. governor romney is facing a so-called blue wall along the west coast, northeast and upper midwest. states that democrats can count on with a large number of electoral votes. how solid is that wall? that is the question. so let s bring in republican pollster adam goaler, founder and ceo of national research up coppedded and jemu green, fox news contributor as well. thank you for joining us. great to be here. heather: so let s talk about this so-called blue wall or as greg referenced before he weapon
the other thing i want to say is i ve got a feeling as marjorie said, that after the primary is done and come august and come september when people really start to focus on this, you don t know where you re going to be in terms of the favorability. you do know that arthel: the favorability doesn t matter, right? the favorability of a challenger matters far less than the job approval of the incumbent. arthel: marjorie? i would agree with adam on that. i think the primary issue will be the economy. if it s on the up and up, obama s favorability has been increasing and i think that will continue to be the trend. it really comes down to what is the economy doing in six months from now. that will determine i think the race. now, beyond that, i think where romney has the biggest challenge is the fact he has a much lower percentage of support from his base, which is a conservative, where as obama has a much higher percentage support from his base marjorie is exactly right and that
consulting and editor of go vote.com. good to see you. good to be here. arthel: adam, i m starting with you because when my mom is confused about something, she just goes, what seems to be the problem? adam, i ask you, what seems to be the problem? absolutely nothing. first of all, a couple of things. where to begin really. this favorable thing is silly. favorable, for a guy that has taken it from all ends in the republican primary is a silly measurement in the spring. number two, when you look at president obama s favorable, favorables don t correlate to his ballot. he could be a nice guy, there is a lot of people who can say, i like barak obama as a person. i just think he s a terrible president. it turns out that that s when most people actually think because when you look at his job approval rating and all of these other measurements and countless other very well respected public poll, his numbers are terrible. so a favorable rating really means nothing.
contested primary. what has to happen is that base sicks around him. arthel: you have that. so to focus on that stuff right now, you know, that s going to close up. the battle we can all agree is going to be among the independents, in several states. and we ll see what happens. right now obama s job approval among independents is in the 40s and that s not good enough. arthel: you ll be happy to hear this, adam got the last word. time is up. it s over. that plant was in michigan that i was talking about. but you guys got the point. adam geller and marjorie, thanks for your perspective. thanks for having us. rick: selma, alabama, small southern town that played a pivotal role in the civil rights movement in the 60s and half a century later, racial tensions still exist there. one group is trying to change that. if you really, like, get in there and like really see beyond the main street or whatever,
arthel: but you could go on cause we there is a lot! arthel: guys, let me take a look at another poll and doug, i ll get to you. this is the fox news poll. does the obama administration know how to encourage job creation? 9% think the administration knows exactly what it s doing when it comes to encouraging job growth. nearly half believe the administration has a pretty good idea. although nearly as many believe it has no idea. so doug, getting back to the president s struggle to produce jobs, how much of this is about performance and how much of this is about politics? well, i think it s about both. it s about performance ultimately because if we don t create jobs and show some movement, the president is not going to get reelected. but it s also about politics cause what we re seeing is that people have an open mind. arthel, what you said to adam is exactly right. people want bipartisan cooperation. they don t want politics. they re willing to give the