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Analysts inaccurate cost estimates are creating a trillion-dollar bubble in conventional energy assets

Published March 15, 2021 Share it The following is a contributed article by Tony Seba and Adam Dorr, founder and research fellow, respectively, at RethinkX. For the past 10 years, there has been a conventional energy bubble gathering steam. The reason is all too familiar. Just as the credit rating agencies ignored actual market data in the buildup to the subprime mortgage crisis, mainstream energy analysts have ignored market data in the valuation of new conventional power plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Wall Street banks and other analysts all assume that a newly-built coal, natural gas, nuclear or hydro power plant will be able to generate the same amount of electricity year after year from now until 2040 and beyond, with the same consistent sales revenue. In essence, these analysts are pretending that conventional power plants will never face competition from solar, wind and battery t

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Over-valued fossil fuel assets creating trillion-dollar bubble about to burst

12 March 2021 A major new report has warned that conventional energy assets including coal, gas, nuclear and hydro power plants have been consistently and “severely” over-valued, creating a massive bubble that could exceed $US1 trillion by 2030. The report is the latest from Rethinx, an independent think-tank that was co-founded by Stanford University futurist Tony Seba, who is regarded as one of few global analysts to correctly forecast the plunging cost of solar over the last decade. According to the new report, co-authored by Rethinx research fellow Adam Dorr, analysts and the broader market are still getting energy valuation badly wrong, not just on the falling costs of solar, wind and batteries, or “SWB,” but on the true value, or levelised cost of energy, of conventional energy assets.

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New Research: Historical Data Shows Inaccurate Levelized Costs of Electricity for Conventional Power Plants Have Distorted the Market and Potentially Created A Growing Global Financial Bubble

New Research: Historical Data Shows Inaccurate Levelized Costs of Electricity for Conventional Power Plants Have Distorted the Market and Potentially Created A Growing Global Financial Bubble
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Will Technology Solve Climate Change?

When humanity started using fossil fuels, it gained access to tens of millions of years’ worth of stored sunlight. The result was a Great Acceleration of everything we had been doing including growing food and harvesting renewable and nonrenewable resources from the natural world and turning them into technology, products, and waste. Our population grew eight-fold (from one billion to nearly eight billion) in a mere two centuries. But then the consequences appeared: climate change, resource depletion, soil erosion and salinization, species extinctions, plastic pollution, and more. It’s tempting to think of these as mere technical glitches that we can solve with more technology. After all, we’re accustomed to using energy and technology to solve every imaginable problem, and many people have grown rich in the process. But it’s hard to escape the perception that a massive energy boost has enabled our species to proliferate too quickly, and to use too much of nature, to its own

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