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Pivotal week confronts emerging markets at mercy of US yields moneyweb.co.za - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from moneyweb.co.za Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
(Bloomberg) That the immediate fate of emerging markets is likely to be determined by the path of the dollar and Treasury yields is barely in dispute. But what is less clear is which direction the U.S. currency and bond market will take, as investors weigh the competing forces of Covid-19 infections and the prospects of a global economic rebound. Another uncertainty is which developing economies are best-placed to ride the recovery. This week “will continue to be dominated by rate volatility, issuance and Covid resurgence,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, the head of fixed-income asset management at Arqaam Capital in Dubai. “If rate volatility declines, supply is constrained and the Covid resurgence in places like India is controlled we can go tighter in spreads. Otherwise, I think we will continue to see weakness in fixed income.” Last week’s performance provided plenty of pointers. Emerging-market dollar bonds had their best week since December, while local-currency debt rose b