in the november general election, what you see is the senate result where herschel walker finished a point behind raphael warnock. nobody got 50. that s why we re having this runoff. in the governor s race, the republican brian kemp won easily. he got 53.5% of the vote. there was a five-point drop-off from the republican candidate who won. there s a substantial number of voters, a significant number of voters who were comfortable voting republican in the governor s race, but who were not comfortable voting for herschel walker in the senate race. who are these voters? they seem to be if you take a look at where they come from in the polls, independents, maybe republican-leaning independents, generally. take a look at this. here s how the independent vote broke in the senate race. warnock by double digits in the senate race back in november. the independents in the governor s race sided with kemp by a point. why was there this split? check out this question. this really jumped out in t
electorate that showed up, that cast ballots in that general election in november on paper was a republican friendly electorate. joe biden s approval rating with a voters who voted in november in georgia was just 41%. brian kemp, the republican governor, won a pretty easy re-election victory. he got 53.5% of the vote and it was walker who lagged five points behind brian kemp. voters comfortable re-elect kemp. vote for republicans for other statewide offices, but not comfortable voting for walker. so where was he lagging here? in the exit poll, one area was independent voters. warnock led among independents by 11 points. governor s race, kemp won the vote by a point over abrams. what about it about walker that turned voters off? we asked this question. do the candidates show good judgment in when we asked that about warnock, 50% yes, 50% now.
that it is a shorter period of early voting. this run-off campaign is only a month long here so we get very high numbers that come out day to day. it is a condensed period, so comparing the early voting now to the early voting before november, there are numbers in there democrats have been encouraged by but there remains a giant x factor and that is simply who turns out and shows up at the polls tomorrow and do the early voting numbers look different when we see the same-day numbers. the dynamic that was set in place in the general election, look at this. obviously the importance of this seat right now, 50-49, the democrats will have a majority, but could they get the 51st seat out of georgia. in the governor s race, the republican, brian kemp, won that race easily. he beat stacey abrams by eight points in that race, 53.5% for kemp. you see herschel walker, kemp s fellow republican under performed kemp by five points.
three seats if they are going to control the senate. the other unfinished piece of business is in wisconsin. we can show you that in a minute. republicans are probably on the whole encouraged by the numbers ron johnson has their. in wisconsin it s known by no means unsettled matter. but if republicans do hang on to wisconsin, they would need to get two out of three that i just circled here. so let s take a look at the lay of the land in those three states right now. in georgia, we are now inching up towards 95% voting, 94% of the vote is in. the margin between warnock and walker sits at 13,000 votes right now. again, it s an incredibly striking difference between walkers 48.8 in the senate race and the 53.5 that brian kemp he s putting up in the governor s race. and take a look at these core republican outside the eight media atlanta metropolitan area. this is core republican area. check out the libertarian in
happened when congressman tim ryan tried to remind his fellow democrats that most americans don t actually support open borders. you re very moderate. you re hanging out in the middle like most of us are. we re back with the rev and david. so it turns out those things ar forever and i wonder, david plouffe, what you think of this strategy. is it good enough to help him win ohio? it s a smart strategy. i think, you know, ohio, ohio s changed a lot, nicole, as you know, a lot over the last decade. so, the question is, tim ryan, i think, is going to get as many votes as you can get. the question is, what is the ceiling for a democrat not named sherrod brown in ohio? he got, like, 53.5% of the vote. barack obama won the state twice not too long ago. that s the question, what s the ceiling? and to win a state like ohio that s trending red, you re going to have to drive democratic turnout to astronomical levels but just the