if that holds, 217 for the republicans. and then the third district, the republican with the lead of 10,000 votes, and that could be 218. and then the 41st district, 80% of the vote is in, and calvert got a boost yesterday and he s leading. you can see what i just went through, and there are a couple others as well, a clear path for republicans to get to 218. and decreasing in the number of votes left to come for the democrats. a path to 218 is there, and they would like it to be 220, or 221, but the democrats would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to get to 218. the republicans, could they get to 220, 221 and this will give
there are 16 uncalled races at this point. of those 16 uncalled races, republicans lead in six, democrats lead in ten, so they only need three of the six they currently lead in. one of the six maybe most likely, there s a lot going on in california, where we think of california as a blue state. it s such a big state with so many districts, there are plenty of republican leaning districts here as well, including down here. not terribly far from san diego. this is california s 41st district, you can see ken calvert who s a three decades serving republican in the house, he s ahead by some 5,000 votes at this point. 82% in, things look good for him, not terribly far away, south of los angeles you have this district here, this is california s 45th incumbent, michelle steele is leading jay ten, 13,000 vote margin hear, 78% reporting. this is actually a democratic leading district, but turnout often favors the republicans there. ask then you go to the border with nevada up here, and there s a
won two house districts. if you zoom out and look where things stand for the house right now, it s basically this. republicans right now are sitting on 215 seats. democrats are sitting here on 207. here are the uncalled democrat versus republican seats. take a look, the reason they feel confident is they need three. take a look at a couple. 27th district of california, mike garcia has an advantage of nearly ten points. the democrat all but conceded. the 41st district, ken calvert leading here. the 45th district, michelle steel expanded her lead. the 3rd district, the republican candidate with republican areas to come here, opening up an advantage of 10,000 votes. that s four right there in
more republican friendly than democrat friendly. it was enough last night to give him the lead in this race for the first time. the he gets anything tonight like last night he could open up a significant lead in the race. this is one democrats badly want. seems to be trending in the wrong direction. we ll see what tonight s update begins. arizona this is where you get into pima county. the republican has built slight but the republican has built a lead here of over 2,000 votes. there are a number in california that look shaky for democrats. christy smith all but conceded this race on twitter yesterday in california s 47th. in the 45th, jay chen has a lot of ground to make up if he s going to catch michelle steel. seven points. about two-thirds of the vote is in. ken calvert, republican in the 41st district. leads by 4,000 votes. here s another one. almost all the votes are in in
herschel walker. there was also that libertarian third-party candidate with 2% of the vote. where will those votes go? they re up for grabs. steve patterson, priscilla thompson, thanks so much. joining us is mark murray and cook political report house prognosticator, dave wasserman. i want to get some of these numbers straight. we ve been reporting our decision desk that 18 races are still not called for. you said that democrats need a miracle to hold onto the chamber. so you ve drilled down on these individual house races. tell us where you see the best advantage, i guess, for the republicans in the remaining house districts. yeah, andrea, democrats have needed to run the table on the remaining outstanding very close races, that path has involved three critical seats arizona s first district, arizona s sixth district and california s 41st