one of the most substantive politicians, foreign views on governing but he has been going after desantis a very hard. and it s been very much, substantively, interesting. interestingly and it is a reminder of how much that was the case back in 2016. because it s on medicare and social security, and he wants to raise the retirement, age that he wants to cut your benefits, that he s a global, is that he s against ethanol. all this stuff, it s surprising to me how substantive it is. but it s also illuminate the facts that part of his comparative advantage in 2016 was being closer to the base than the politicians on some issues. sure. and that s partially because trump has people around him this time around to understand how to one political campaigns. and he also, strategically, has campaign consultants around him now who used to work for ron desantis, who know desantis vulnerabilities, who know where the bodies are buried for him. so, there are people who are disgruntled, former
have had to governor desantis. the question a lot of people ask is, you re making a good case for desantis. but at the field the split and divided in 2024 as it was in 2016 donald trump is going to have that 30 35% core. when dick carried the plurality. are they going to have to ignite relatively early behind a single one or two candidates. alternatives? i think they re going to have to unite at the right time for that is to say before we start voting. first of all i doubt we have 17 candidates like we had in 2016. in 2015 and 2016. because i think people recognize a split field does allow the former president to have a better chance of renomination. i think we are going to have a smaller field. people are going to say i want to know how good you are and i want to develop a sense of whether or not i think you have what it takes to get it done. but i and my friends the fellow activist, fellow donors, fellow aficionados of politics are going to try to settle on one or
cut up the maybe 50% not trump. yep. but the other structural problem that republicans have in primaries, once you get past three or four races it s winner take all. right? this is how trump beat cruz in 2016. because you get to a point where you re not having to get 50-plus 1% in these states. just hang on with a group of people and take home all the delegates. interesting things to play out here in this republican nomination. yeah. the choice is so clear, though, for republicans. so clear. they saw desantis. they saw what happened. practically a coronation and saw trump again leading them to defeat. jon meacham, you ve talked a good bit about the united states going through a period of, could be the 1850s. i think a lot of historians would agree with you. a lot of political analysts would agree with you. but talk about last night.
polling, because this is the kind of thing the could show even to voters. voters are motivated to win. show us there s one guy you can nominate one of the worst possible chance, maybe don t nominate him. i do wonder whether that message is going to get through at some point? well, it s an interesting question. some of this is that polling is never felt as relevant as it does after 2016. because trump voters were told that entire time, during all time that the trump s gonna lose in those polls. so they take it with a real grain of salt. but it is true that there might be a better opening for someone like ron desantis to make a better case. hey we look we all of trump, but there s too much baggage, why risk it, we all want to get rid of joe biden, let s take a safer pick. you see perhaps with the
show us there s one guy you can nominate one of the worst possible chance, maybe don t nominate him. i do wonder whether that message is going to get through at some point? well, it s an interesting question. some of this is that polling is never felt as relevant as it does after 2016. because trump voters were told that entire time, during all time that the trump s gonna lose in those polls. so they take it with a real grain of salt. but it is true that there might be a better opening for someone like ron desantis to make a better case. hey we look we all of trump, but there s too much baggage, why risk it, we all want to get rid of joe biden, let s take a safer pick. you see perhaps with the january six hearing, very few base republicans are going to concede, while this is horrifying, we should ve abandoned trump. but you are starting to hear some republicans whisper, maybe this does weaken him in the