One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.
Dramatic price rise
Copper is trading over $4.00 a pound this year on rapidly tightening physical markets, rebounding economic growth especially in China, the top metals consumer, and the expectation that the era of low inflation in key economies may soon be over.
I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.
He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations adds up to a new bull market.
This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.
Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.
The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.
This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.
Bullion dealers have spent much of the past year fighting to get inventory, because investment demand for coins, bars, and rounds has never been higher.
The frustration, for both seasoned metals investors and a whole lot of newcomers, is the demand hasn’t been fully reflected in the price. Yes, silver prices have showed strength. But silver has underperformed commodities such as lumber.