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Gauging Western Wildfires – The Ecological Society of America
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Climate, Fire Model Suggests Western Wildfires Will Intensify for a Decade Before Gradual Decline
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2:18
California s 2020 wildfire season burned more than four million acres and broke numerous records for increased size and intensity, according to a recent report from the state’s Forest Management Task Force.
Understanding these changes in wildfire activity is what UCSB Professor Naomi Tague studies in her lab.
“I develop mathematical computer simulation models that take remote sensing data, take what we learn from field scientists and put it all together, so we can start to get a handle on how climate change affects the environment,” Tague said.
Tague looks at how climate, water, vegetation and wildfire interact over time.
“We are seeing larger, more high severity fires in the Western U.S. and some of the reasons for that is increasing drought, warmer temperatures that are caused by climate change, and in some places fire suppression has contributed to that,” Tague said.
2:18
California s 2020 wildfire season burned more than four million acres and broke numerous records for increased size and intensity, according to a recent report from the state’s Forest Management Task Force.
Understanding these changes in wildfire activity is what UCSB Professor Naomi Tague studies in her lab.
“I develop mathematical computer simulation models that take remote sensing data, take what we learn from field scientists and put it all together, so we can start to get a handle on how climate change affects the environment,” Tague said.
Tague looks at how climate, water, vegetation and wildfire interact over time.
“We are seeing larger, more high severity fires in the Western U.S. and some of the reasons for that is increasing drought, warmer temperatures that are caused by climate change, and in some places fire suppression has contributed to that,” Tague said.
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The team found that climate change increased burn probability and led to larger, more frequent fires in wetter areas while doing the opposite in more arid locations. In areas of intermediate soil moisture, the effects of climate change and fire suppression varied in response to local trade-offs between flammability and fuel loading.
The scientists were surprised that climate change could decrease the severity of fires under certain conditions, but Tague offers an explanation. “Climate change can reduce the growth and development of fuels, particularly in more arid sites,” she said.
These are crucial insights in our efforts to understand and manage wildfires.
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