May 14, 2021
Special Dispatch No. 9337
Russian Military Expert Felgengauer: The Decision In Principle To Occupy South Ukraine In Its Entirety Has Already Been Made
May 14, 2021
Rosbalt media s senior correspondent Alexander Zhelenin interviewed the military expert Pavel Felgengauer and heard from him a shocking prediction. Russia intends to invade Ukraine and occupy the entire south of that country. It is not a question of if but when. While most observers see Donbass as the flashpoint for renewed war, Felgengauer sees control of the Sea of Azov as the casus belli. Going to war will be a momentous decision for Putin, because as opposed to Russia s successful surprise attack in the 2008 war with Georgia, Russian movements are being closely monitored, and the West, even if it does not intervene directly, can be expected to supply Kiev with arms that will make such an invasion costly.
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This spring, Russia has been conducting a sizeable military buildup along its border with Ukraine and in occupied Crimea. Most of these deployments seem spontaneous and unrelated to any scheduled training exercises. Russia’s activity has not been limited to the land. There has also been a Russian buildup at sea. Recently, four Russian warships from the Baltic fleet have moved to the Black Sea. In addition, 15 vessels from the Caspian flotilla have just arrived in the Sea of Azov. This means a total of at least 50 Russian warships are now operating in the waters around Ukraine.REF