March 15, 2021:
In central Yemen (Marib province) a Shia rebel offensive that began in early February grinds on, now in reverse. Calling the fighting a rebel “offensive” is misleading because most of the “fighting” involves artillery and mortar fire as well as dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles. The government forces respond with even more artillery fire and air strikes, all provided by the Arab Coalition. Six weeks of this “intense” fighting has killed or wounded nearly 500 fighters from both sides as well as a few civilians.
The rebel offensive has failed to push government forces out of the province completely and weakened the rebels sufficiently for the recent government counterattack to force the depleted rebel forces back. The February offensive was encouraged by UAE forces leaving Marib in early 2020 because of disagreements with Saudi Arabia over strategy and to deploy all their military forces in the UAE where they were needed to discourage any Iranian aggression against the UAE itself. For that reason, the UAE took their missile defense systems with them when they left Marib and that made government military bases more vulnerable to rebel ballistic and cruise missiles provided by Iran. The withdrawal of Arab coalition forces from Marib enabled the rebels to successfully regain control of much territory in the province. But the rebels suffered hundreds of casualties in recent failed efforts to capture the provincial capital, which is 120 kilometers east of the rebel held national capital Sanaa.