According to the report, the most likely drivers of a third wave include behavioural changes after the end of the last wave, ongoing viral mutations, seasonal factors and reinfection due to the waning of immunity conveyed by previous infection.
Third wave scenarios
The modelling data further indicated that a third wave will likely peak lower than the second wave, provided that no new variants emerge, while hospital admissions are also expected to be lower.
Those in younger age groups are expected to have fewer hospital admissions than during the second wave.
Gauteng is expected to be the hardest-hit province, since it is home to more than a quarter of South Africa’s population.