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We looked at what would happen if other seats nearby were to hold an election now, and what a similar 16% swing of votes to the Conservatives would mean for those areas.
In the 2019 General Election in South Shields Labour’s Emma Lewell-Buck won with 45.6% of the votes ahead of the Conservative candidate Oni Oviri, who picked up 20.3% of the vote.
Despite the large advantage Labour had then, a similar swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the next election would see the seat change hands.
Jarrow would also fall to the Conservatives with a 16% swing, even though last time out Labour received a 45.1% vote share compared to the Conservatives who had 27.6%.