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Weaker-than-expected global economic growth could hinder the US recovery, Fed researchers said.
The CBO expects US GDP to grow 4.6% in 2021, but the chances of that fade on slower global growth.
The Fed simulated 2021 growth 1 million times and found weak global growth almost guarantees US underperformance.
The US economic recovery hinges a great deal on how the rest of the world rebounds, according to researchers at the
Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas.
For the moment, the US is expected to fully recover from its virus-induced downturn by the end of the year. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects gross domestic product will expand by 4.6% in 2021, offsetting the 3.4% contraction seen in 2020.